The Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool for the Delaware Basin: Development, testing and applications

The Delaware Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool (FEE Tool) is an expert system designed to reduce exploration risk for the Lower Brushy Canyon formation of the Delaware Basin. The components of the Delaware FEE Tool include a knowledge base containing sets of rules developed through expert interviews, an answer base of numerical inputs to these rules, an inference engine that uses fuzzy logic to evaluate the rules with answer base or user-provided data, and a user interface where the user can work with input data and interpret the tool’s results. For each of 60,478,40-acre locations in the NewMexico portion of the Delaware Basin, the FEE Tool output includes a scaled quality estimate in the set {0, 1}, with a value of 0.65 or greater, indicating a low risk prospect. In testing, the quality estimates were found to be significantly higher at locations where recent successful wells were located. The Delaware FEE Tool was also used as a reserve estimation tool by relating the FEE Tool estimate at a known producing well to its total expected production. Then the FEE Tool estimates at undrilled locations were used to calculate a reserve estimate. Using this approach, the probable regional reserves were estimated to fall between 278 and 432 million bbls. 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.